Hewitt Blog

From Mike Allen's Playbook this AM:

TIME magazine dubs Obama “MR. UNPOPULAR”—Michael Scherer: “White House aides explain this change as a largely inevitable reflection of the cycles of ?history. Midterms are almost always bad for first-term Presidents, and worse in hard times. “The public is rightly frustrated and angry with the economy,” says Dan Pfeiffer, Obama’s communications director, explaining the White House line. “There is no small tactical shift we could have made at any point that would have solved that problem.” In more confiding moments, aides admit that the peak of Obama’s popularity may have been inflated, a fleeting result of elation at the prospect of change and national pride in electing the first African-American President. As one White House aide puts it, ‘It was sort of fake.’”

Wow.  This White House is paralyzed with self-pity and still suffused with arrogance and ideological blindness.  The president is plummeting in the polls and his party with them because their ideas don't work, they seem ashamed of America, and they want to take all the money and give it to their friends.  This isn't hard to figure out, but the ego in the Oval Office needs a grand historical explanation for his unfolding failure.

Incompetence and arrogance combined with extreme ideology far outside the American mainstream is just too easy for him to grasp.

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Geraghty the Indispensable has long had the assistance of political oracle "Obi-Wan." Obi-Wan returns in a post at today's Campaign Spot, which should be read very closely indeed by all candidates and activists.

Among many insights is one overriding one: Desperate Democrats, fully supported by a kept MSM, will try anything between now and 11/2 to retain power.

Which means an October Surprise.  Or a whole series of them.

Recall, these are Chicago pols we are talking about.

Here's part of the key Q&A with Geraghty:

Q: The atmosphere can’t stay like this for two months, right? Something has to go wrong for Republicans.

OWK: Can the Democrats outplay the GOP in the closing weeks and save just enough to hold on?

One problem area is that Republicans don’t usually get the media dynamic. Look at the week of the Obamacare vote — while Republicans were focused on legislative maneuvers and talking amendments, the White House created the right media climate, one where wavering Democrats could feel comfortable by citing the support of the Catholic nuns and the hospital associations and the CBO in a nice little series of TV set-pieces.

Remember that Politico piece about the daily phone call of Rahm Emanuel, James Carville, Begala, and George Stephanopoulos on the White House line of the day? ABC News has been tracking pretty accurately on the White House various pitches this spring and summer — the Tea partiers are haters or Timothy McVeigh types — then the whole setup for the NAACP convention launched the “they’re all racist” theme, etc. So keep an eye on ABC, especially Stephanopoulos and also First Read and Politico — they’re usually the first-wave transmitters of the White House line. Believe me, they’ve already got a pollster or two who’s ready to bend some numbers and journalists ready to write about the “sudden Democratic surge.” I’d love to know which week they have picked for the “Democrats are back in business” story. They have tried it twice this summer, but neither polls nor events carried the storyline any further. They will badly need the networks’ news departments to come through if there is a real domestic terrorist incident or some ugly display by someone on the right.

This fall they will know no checks — October Surprises, maybe every day and all day. What this means, I don’t know — bombing Iran? Capturing Osama bin Laden or some other big name and announcing the news two days before the election? Get tough with Paris Hilton and send her to Guantanamo?

[I am fairly certain my mentor is exaggerating. Having said that, I hope Paris pays her lawyers well.]

Q: What can the GOP do?

First, predict it. Just tell the people that the White House and Democrats will try and control the media dynamic and narrative. This is what they do. They don’t really know how to govern for the public good; if they could do that, they would be in better shape. What they do know to do is use media events to hold onto power, to go on television and blab.

Second, Republicans ought to be using the words “October Surprise” endlessly. Hold a contest to see who comes up with the most creative suggestion for what the Dems might do.

I will devote at least part of today's show to just such a contest.  If you cannot phone in your prediction, email it to hugh@hughhewitt.com.

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Alaska GOP Senate nominee Joe Miller joined me on yesterday's program.  You can contribute to his campaign via this link.  The transcript of our conversation shows that Miller will bring an originalist's view to the Senate, as well as the experience that only a West Point graduate who fought in the Gulf War can have to the oversight of the military.  

The interview:

HH: Joined now by the most amazing political figure in America this week. Joe Miller is the Republican nominee for the United States Senate in Alaska, the upset of 2010, I believe, after Scott Brown’s election in Massachusetts. Joe Miller, welcome to the Hugh Hewitt Show. It’s great to talk to you. 

JM: Thanks for having me, Hugh. Glad to be on.

HH: Let’s start by telling people how they find your website.

JM: www.joemiller.us, and we need plenty of traffic there, especially to the donate button.

HH: Oh, you bet, because I imagine Democrats now think they’ve got a rookie on the table, and they’re going to be able to take you out with some union money. Have you seen any of that yet?

JM: Well, it’s going to flow in. There’s no doubt about it. The DNC is already all over this race. They’ve put out a YouTube video. I guess I’m the prime example of why they think they’re going to win, but obviously, they aren’t. They are basically representing a failed socialist agenda of Obama. I think Americans are going to roundly reject them.

HH: Now Joe Miller, a lot of people want to know how you did this. Now the folks up listening to me on KCAM, one of my Alaska affiliates, 790, they’ll know. But explain to people how you managed to come up and win the Republican nomination from a sitting Senator.

JM: You know, it was a perfect storm of just a number of inputs. You know, of course we started getting on the national stage with having Governor Palin endorse, and then immediately, or soon thereafter, we had the Tea Party Express get engaged. We had Governor Huckabee lend his support. Of course, we had other radio talk show hosts nationally get engaged, we had local talk show hosts. And of course, then we had the incredible volunteer network here in Alaska. And the people on the ground here just worked this campaign day and night. And even though it’s a big state, it’s small, population-wise, and word of mouth, sweat equity, that’s really what makes the race up here. And that’s how I ran it, and that’s how I won it.

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Joe Miller joins me on today's program.  His website his here, and you can contribute to his campaign here.

I will also be joined by Georgia's next governor, Nathan Deal, Arkansas' next senator John Boozman, and Minnesota's governor Tim Pawlenty.

If you haven't signed up yet at WinningInNovember to help assure that November is the huge win that the country needs, please do so right now by clicking on the banner above.

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Docs4PatientCare.org organized thousands of doctors to try and stop Obamacare.  Now the organization is taking the lead in working for its repeal, starting with the firing of the Democrats in House and Senate who voted for the disaster against the will of their constituents.

Dr. Hal Scherz, a co-founder of the group, writes about the new effort in today's Wall Street Journal.

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Nicholas Kristof's column on the proposed mosque near Ground Zero caused more than a little controversy when it was published last week.

On Monday I interviewed him about it.  Here's the transcript:

HH: Pleased to welcome back to the program New York Times columnist, Nicholas Kristof. Nick, welcome back, good to talk to you. 

NK: My pleasure.

HH: Last week’s column, "Taking bin Laden’s Side," has, how much response have you gotten to that column, Nick?

NK: A ton of it, most of it, or much of it suggesting that I’m completely nuts. But that’s always a sign that you’ve kind of rattled people a little bit.

HH: Well, I spent a good part of last week with E.J. Dionne talking about his take on the Mosque, so I wanted to follow up with you as another one of the center-left columnists out there that people on my side of the aisle read and take seriously. I think your argument was three-fold – it’s not really a mosque, it’s not really at Ground Zero, and the imam and his wife are “the real deal.” Is that a fair summary?

NK: Yeah, yeah, to some degree. I mean, not so much that it’s not a Mosque, but that it’s not really Ground Zero.

HH: Let’s start. If it was just a mosque, and not a community center, not like a YMCA as you argue in the column, would that make a difference to you if it was just a large mosque? Would you change your position?

NK: No, that would not.

HH: And if it was closer to Ground Zero, would it change your position?

NK: It, I mean, if it were, you know, a little bit closer, I’m not sure that would. If it were actually at Ground Zero, I mean, I think that whatever is at Ground Zero really should be closely scrutinized, and you know, I’d have to think about what really should be at Ground Zero. So I would draw the distinction as what is at Ground Zero, and then what is, you know, a couple of blocks away.

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Here is the transcript of my conversation Monday with John Boehner on the need for speed should the GOP reclaim the House majority in 2011.

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Democrats are eager to blame all their woes on the economy, which in turn allows them --in their own minds-- to blame Bush.

RealClearPolitics' Jay Cost returns their (and our) attention to Obamacare.

Read the whole thing.  Candidates must keep the focus on slashing the spending, stopping the tax hikes and repealing and replacing Obamacare.

All of those elements contribute to the astonishing 10 point gap favoring the GOP on the Gallup generic ballot.  Nate Silver is worried that "even if this particular Gallup survey was an outlier, it’s not unlikely that we’ll begin to see some 8-, 9-, 10-point leads for Republicans in this poll somewhat routinely once Gallup switches over to a likely voter model at some point after Labor Day — unless Democrats do something to get the momentum back."

The only thing the Democrats could do to change the fundamentals is to extend the Bush tax cuts --all of them-- for at least two years.  The GOP will refuse anything except full extension --and rightly so if the economy is to  become untracked--but would have to accept a bill holding the tax status quo until 1/1/13.

That is it.  The one thing that would make a difference, and save a score or more of Democratic seats, and perhaps the majority?

And there isn't a chance the Dems will do it.

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Team Rubicon has deployed to parts of Pakistan ravaged by floods.

Team Rubicon, composed primarily of former U.S. military and emergency response veterans have teamed with Doctors Outreach Clinics to bring Drip Drop, an advanced oral rehydration solution (ORS) to Pakistan. Developed by Dr. Eduardo Dolhun, Drip Drop is used to combat cholera, dehydration, and diarrhea. The team is traveling in remote areas to treat internally displaced persons (IDPs) of the Pakistani flood crisis. In addition to treatment, the team is training IDPs how to make the solution with locally available resources. Indigenizing the solution is the end goal of the team, so that those treated are less of a burden on the already stretched thin government, security forces, and NGOs. Dolhun is Mayo Clinic trained and educated, teaches at Stanford, and deployed with Team Rubicon to Haiti.

Dr. Dolhun is an expert at treating cholera so our mission matches up well with the conditions on the ground. We are carrying enough solution to treat up to 8,000 refugees. Dolhun wants to identify a solid partner on the ground so more ORS can be shipped in after our departure.

If you have thought about helping Pakistan, but were worried about which organizations if any could effectively operate in such conditions and with such an array of threats, help Team Rubicon, which is there and providing assistance.  You can do so online.

I will try and get one or more of the Team members on the show in the next few days.

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I will be joined by Nicholas Kristof in the last hour today to discuss his column on the mosque from last week, "Taking Bin Laden's Side."

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