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Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 8:59 AM
When Barack Obama was elected:

The inflation rate was 3.7%
Unemployment was 6.5%
The prime was at 4%
The Dow closed at 9,625
The NASDAQ closed at 1,780
The S&P closed at 1,005
Oil was $60 a barrel.
U.S. monthly domestic oil production: appx 155 million barrels
U.S. proven oil reserves: 21.3 billion barrels
U.S. offshore proven reserves: 3.9 billion barrels


These were the facts as polls closed on 11/4.  His domestic success or failure should be measured against them.

The two weeks since his election have featured exactly one Obama press conference even as the country's economic worries continue.  His party's rush to craft a bail-out for GM, Ford and Chrylser has magnified concerns that any Democratic Party constituency --in this case the UAW-- with a want will get Congressional action whether or not it makes sense, and the doldrums of the last week are in no small part a reaction to the approach of the purposeless spending festival.

President Bush and the GOP simply do not believe GM CEO Rick Wagoner when he says that a Big 3 bailout is necessary to "save the U.S. economy from a catastrophic collapse,"  but if the president-elect does believe that he should say so and demand the lame-duck Congress act.  In this day and age, though the formal transfer of power is two months away, the accountability clock has already begun. 

GM's Wagoner makes his case for federal assistance here.

Mitt Romney takes the opposite view here in a New York Times' op-ed.  Romney's conclusion:



It is not wrong to ask for government help, but the automakers should come up with a win-win proposition. I believe the federal government should invest substantially more in basic research — on new energy sources, fuel-economy technology, materials science and the like — that will ultimately benefit the automotive industry, along with many others. I believe Washington should raise energy research spending to $20 billion a year, from the $4 billion that is spent today. The research could be done at universities, at research labs and even through public-private collaboration. The federal government should also rectify the imbedded tax penalties that favor foreign carmakers.

But don’t ask Washington to give shareholders and bondholders a free pass — they bet on management and they lost.

The American auto industry is vital to our national interest as an employer and as a hub for manufacturing. A managed bankruptcy may be the only path to the fundamental restructuring the industry needs. It would permit the companies to shed excess labor, pension and real estate costs. The federal government should provide guarantees for post-bankruptcy financing and assure car buyers that their warranties are not at risk.

In a managed bankruptcy, the federal government would propel newly competitive and viable automakers, rather than seal their fate with a bailout check.

I will devote most of today's show to the topic of whether or not the Big 3 should get a big check.  If you are a dealer -Big 3 or otherwise-- send me an e-mail with your contact info, to hugh@hughhewitt.com.  Ditto for car execs who want to weigh in. 

This is a huge question, and the president-elect should make his views known, asap.




Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 8:55 AM


Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 9:25 AM
American Lion: Andrew Jackson in the White House

Newsweek's Jon Meacham will be my guest today to discuss his wonderful American Lion: Andrew Jackson in the White House.




Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 9:20 AM

Last Tuesday we celebrated the faithful service of our veterans who have answered the call to defend us. Veterans Day was also the fundraising kickoff of a an organization that supports the wounded--our living veterans who have given the most. Non-profit Soldiers’ Angels Project Valour-IT works closely with caseworkers in military and VA hospitals to supply technology that supports the recovery of wounded warriors, including:

*        Voice-controlled Laptops - Operated by speaking into a microphone or using other adaptive technologies, they allow the wounded to maintain connections with the rest of the world during recovery (over 2700 so far).

*         Wii Video Game Systems - Whole-body game systems increase motivation and speed recovery when used under the guidance of physical therapists in therapy sessions.

*         Personal GPS - Handheld GPS devices build self-confidence and independence by compensating for short-term memory loss and organizational challenges related to TBI and severe PTSD.

To make this fun, Valour-IT is having a competition among bloggers aligned along the service branches to see who can raise the most by Thanksgiving (all monies go to the same account). Bloggers can join one of the service branch teams  to participate in the effort. Join a team and get a widget to post on your site here, or make a general donation here.

I am a member of the USMC Team, so if you are going to make a donation as a result of this post, please direct it to the Marines' team.


Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 9:03 AM
As many of my callers discussed on yesterday's program, there are lots of options for dealing with a supertanker seized by pirates --none of them good.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the president-elect had better be preparing to deal with this growing menace:

Pirates off the Somalia coast have attacked 26 vessels and taken hostage 537 crew members in the three months ended Sept. 30, according to the International Maritime Bureau, a maritime-crimes watchdog. They have raked in an estimated $18 million to $30 million in ransom so far this year, according to a report last month by Chatham House, a London-based think tank -- a figure that may be driving the upsurge in attacks.

Of course a tanker with 2 million barrels of oil presents more than grave risk to one crew, and the Bush Administration will resolve this episode before President Obama is sworn in.

But it would have been useful if during one of the presidential campaign debates, even one question had dealt with any sort of hostage crisis, and perhaps even one at sea.


Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 8:43 AM
Former Treasury Secretary and Harvard President Larry Summers held forth on the economy yesterday, and if the early betting is correct, that is the set of presently private ruminations most relevant to the year ahead.

A Summers' return to Treasury would be a very good thing, and given the bozos at my alma mater's decision to run off the brilliant Summers from Harvard's presidency, he can't be looking forward to many more years by the Charles.  A second time around at a Cabinet post allows the occupant the chance to put into effect the lessons learned on tour number one.  This is what Donald Rumsfeld began to do in 2001 when the war intervened, and when Rumsfeld's memoirs emerge we will get his side of the story about the ability of any Secretary to change any major bureaucracy.

But if anyone could have taken time between Acts one and two at an agency to think through crucial reforms, it would be Summers.  I hope the president-elect sends him back to Hamilton's job.


Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 8:34 AM
There are up to 800 billion barrels of oil in the oil shale deposits of the mountain west, and yesterday the Bush Administration "opened up two million acres of public land in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming to oil-shale exploration, challenging congressional Democrats who have opposed the move."

The lease process, if allowed to move forward by President Obama will take years, but as with offshore drilling a start has to be made, not postponed, if we are to avoid a return to $140 a barrel oil..


Monday, November 17, 2008
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 4:44 PM
My friend and radio colleague Michael Medved has a new book out, The 10 Big Lies About America,  which is a great tonic for political junkies undergoing post-election withdrawals.  The book is already at 591 at Amazon.com and doesn't even officially publish until tomorrow.  Order a couple today and remind the MSM that the conservative audience remains large and engaged.

Michael joins me in hour two today to discuss the book and other subjects including a post-mortem on the campaign.

The 10 Big Lies About America: Combating Destructive Distortions About Our Nation


Monday, November 17, 2008
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 8:08 AM
Yesterday's vote by the Iraqi cabinet to approve a status of forces agreement confirms what most reasonable people had concluded this summer --that the battle for Iraq is over and the country is stable and secure even though its enemies remain in small enclaves within the country and across the border in Iran.  It has taken five years and come at a high cost in American lives lost and in thousands of wounded soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines.

It is, however, a crucial victory in the war against Islamist extremism and for stability in the Middle East.  Only blinkered victims of Bush Derangement Syndrome would want to throw away the fact of a multi-party, multi-ethnic democratic government in the heart of the Arab world, one capable of countering Iranian influence in the region and one that partners with the West in the ongoing battle against al Qaeda.  The new agreement calls for the full withdrawal of American forces in three years --an orderly exit that allows order to endure within Iraq. 

Will President-elect Obama modify his rhetoric in order to preserve such an important victory, or will he rush the withdrawal and endanger the stability?

One key graph from the New York Times story:



“This vote shows that the Iraqis have figured out how to stand up for themselves, to Iran and to the U.S.,” said Michael E. O’Hanlon, a specialist on Iraq at the Brookings Institution. “They will have stared in the face at the various options and concluded that none are ideal, but the best for their security is an amount of ongoing but finite American cooperation, while also indicating their strong desire to run their own country on their own as soon as possible.”



George Bush leaves office with low approval ratings but with a record of having prevented terrorist attacks on the U.S. since 9/11 and of having removed one of the world's most brutal tyrants, leaving a stable government in his place.  Iraq is free and beginning to prosper.  It is Barack Obama's task to assure that this important strategic achievement is not thrown away.





Saturday, November 15, 2008
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 9:03 AM

On Friday night's Hannity & Colmes, I noted that markets had been "pricing in" the consequences of sending President-elect Obama and strong Democratic majorities, and my e-mail box filled up with outrage at the idea that the president-elect caused the market collapse.

Which goes to show that the president-elect's partisans aren't going to be listening very closely when anyone criticizes the new president.  Of course the president-elect didn't cause the market collapse.  But the numbers post-11/4 are tough to ignore.

With the polls still open on election day, the Dow closed at 9,625, the NASDAQ at 1,780 and the S&P 500 at 1005. 

By comparison, yesterday the markets closed at 8,497, 1,516, and 873 respectively.

That's the bad news.  The good news is that more and more voices are being heard noting the absurdity of the panic the economy is gripped by, and predicting that while there is a recession which will be as difficult as any recession, the underlying fundamentals are very strong indeed and that stock and commodities markets are oversold, real estate fairly priced, and bonds too rich for the real data.

Transcripts of interviews I conducted yesterday with Brian Wesbury and James Smith are here and here and I strongly recommend you read them, a couple of times.  Both men are extraordinarily well-credentialed and respected economists and proven forecasters, and both refuse to be misled by the panic-spreading MSM.  Here's one exchange with Wesbury:

HH: And are you advising your clients generally, not specifically with regard to any particular equity issue, that they need to take a deep breath and take their money off the sidelines and put it in? 

BW: Absolutely. Right now, cash, just in money market funds, is 44% of total stock market capitalization, which is just a huge number. It’s like fifty feet of snow being in the mountains. And when it melts and starts coming back down, the rivers roar. When it comes into the market, I think this market is undervalued, people have run away from risk. This panic that we saw in September and October, it’s visible in the market. And once people get an appetite for risk again, which by the way, they always do. One of my theories these days, it’s highly technical, so get ready, is dogs bark. 



Which brings me back to the president-elect.  If he was simply to announce that there would be no tax hikes in 2009, period, the impact on the markets would be immediate and perhaps even enough to reverse the market psychology that continues to see fear trumping greed.  My guess is that Democrats would prefer to see the market slides abate of themselves so that they can get to the business of raising taxes asap. but markets are the wisdom of the many, and the many are worried right now that the president-elect could take a bad situation and make it very much worse.

The election of Obama didn't cause the market collapse.  But worries about his policies have certainly taken it lower than it needed to go and will continue to act as an anchor on stocks until some clarity emerges about the direction he intends to head.  The sooner the better on that.




Friday, November 14, 2008
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 7:32 PM
The fire that destroyed 100 homes in Montecito yesterday also badly damaged the campus of Westmont College, one of country's great Christian colleges.  An update from the campus is here. 


Friday, November 14, 2008
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 5:52 PM
California Congressman Dan Lungren opens the show to discuss his bid to replace John Boehner as GOP leader in the House.

Economists James Smith and Brian Wesbury discuss the changes in the Treasury TARP program and the proposed bail-out of Detroit's Big Three.

And the www.Amaze.fm Friday song of the week. 



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